Mitch McConnell vs. Donald Trump (and the voters)

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Senate Republicans met Tuesday for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s weekly off-the-record members’ lunch. These meetings, along with regular Wednesday Steering Committee lunches, are among the few regular times when party senators gather in one room to set party policy and messaging.

There are few clearer windows into McConnell’s priorities than these lunches, and Tuesday did not disappoint: The RAND Corporation was invited to present its report on military spending and the potential need to raise taxes to increase the military percentage of the country’s GDP.

Senate-watchers can consider Tuesday’s lunch not simply a glimpse into a moment of McConnell’s priorities but a preview into his goals for this month’s spending fight — and his plans for the likely December spending deal that will follow.

That’s right; that was the priority. It wasn’t the former president and Republican nominee, who over the weekend survived another assassination attempt. It wasn’t Donald Trump’s campaign focus on past tax cuts or promise of more to come. It wasn’t House Republicans’ strategic (if faltering) election play to link the SAVE Act to a six-month spending resolution or even the threat of a bloated omnibus hanging over the Senate’s own head. It was more money for the Pentagon. Keep in mind: The government runs out of funding at the end of the month, at midnight on Sept. 30 — or 12 days from now.

More money for the Pentagon, once a safe Republican issue, has fallen from favor with voters and members over the past four years in particular. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Blaze News learned, pushed back, asking why the conference ought to spend time considering tax hikes (suggested in the report) to deliver billions to a politicized, incompetent Pentagon brass that has cratered recruitment numbers. To Lee’s point, Trump has vocally lashed out at unaccountable Pentagon leadership, pointing out in last week's debate that the Biden-Harris administration hadn’t fired a single person over the chaotic, deadly, and embarrassing retreat from Kabul.

But McConnell doesn’t share those concerns. Indeed, he’s made clear he intends to stay on in the Senate after stepping down from leadership this fall explicitly to fight for Pentagon priorities and continued funding for the war in Ukraine. Throughout the meeting, he reportedly waxed wistful about American defense spending as a percentage of GDP during World War II and other eras.

Senate-watchers can consider Tuesday’s lunch not simply a glimpse into a moment of McConnell’s priorities but a preview into his goals for this month’s spending fight — and his plans for the likely December spending deal that will follow. Keep an eye out for big promises to Pentagon brass, get ready to see South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham’s bill committing the United States to a decade of funding Ukraine’s war against Russia, and expect other moves to tie Trump’s hands on foreign policy should he win in November.

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