Record-breaking turnout in this key demographic could sway the election

When it comes to early voting, rural voters are turning out in droves, while urban voters' participation is declining in key battleground states. Given that rural voters tend to lean Republican and urban voters lean Democratic, this trend could be particularly consequential going into the election.

Since 2020, there has been over a six-point increase in rural early voting across the seven battlegrounds, while urban early voting decreased by over seven points, according to data from TargetEarly. Suburban voters only increased by about one point from 2020 across the seven swing states.

With just two days to go until the election, this may turn the tide in former President Trump's favor.

There is a partisan split between rural and urban voters, which could shift the electoral outcome, and it has only widened over the last two decades.

Suburban voters have been split down the middle for the past two decades, with 50% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning and 47% identifying as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, according to a Pew Research study from April.

Urban voters have a larger partisan gap, leaning heavily toward Democrats. In 1994, 58% of urban voters identified as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, while 39% identified as Republican or Republican-leaning, according to the study. The partisan gap widened slightly by 2023, with 60% of urban voters identifying as Democratic and 37% identifying as Republican.

The partisan gap among rural voters used to be extremely narrow, with 51% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning and 45% identifying as Democratic or Democrat-leaning, according to the study. Since then, just 35% identify as Democrats, while 60% identify as Republicans.

While urban voters, who are mostly Democratic, are participating at a lower rate in battleground states compared to 2020, rural voters, who are mostly Republican, have a higher turnout rate. With just two days to go until the election, this may turn the tide in former President Trump's favor.

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