Spanberger opens early lead in Virginia governor’s race, new poll shows

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor of Virginia, maintains a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent, according to a new poll from Virginia Commonwealth University.

The survey, conducted between June 19 and July 3, found that 49 percent of registered voters support Spanberger, with 37 percent saying they would vote for GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears if the election were held today. That’s an even bigger lead than Spanberger enjoyed in Commonwealth’s December poll, which had Earle-Sears trailing her by 10 percentage points.

The poll also found that the cost of living continues to dominate as voters’ top concern, with reproductive rights and immigration also ranking high among Virginians’ priorities. Spanberger, who represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025 after serving in the CIA, is leaning into the issue by touting an “Affordable Virginia Plan” that lays out her vision for lowering housing, energy and health care costs.

The centrist Democrat enjoys an even wider lead among young voters, with respondents aged 18-24 years old siding with the Democrat by a margin of 31 percentage points. Her campaign also outraised Earle-Sears’ by more than $4 million in the last three months, raking in over $10 million between April and June, according to a report filed Tuesday with the Virginia State Board of Elections.

The Commonwealth survey polled 764 registered voters via landline and cell phone. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.