Talarico leads Crockett in Texas Senate primary, according to new poll

James Talarico has leapt ahead in the Texas Senate Democratic primary with a 9-point lead over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, according to new polling from Emerson College released Thursday.

The data shows Talarico, a state representative from Austin, leading the Dallas Congress member by 47 percent to 38 percent ahead of their March 3 primary.

When Crockett jumped into the race in December, her national prominence and fundraising strength had some expecting her to take the lead in the primary. But Talarico has poured money into his campaign and built a large online following.

On the GOP side, the poll shows a tight race: Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by 1 point, at 27 to 26 percent, with Rep. Wesley Hunt sitting at 16 percent support. The race is widely expected to head to a May 26 runoff since no candidate is close to 50 percent support, which would extend the brutal GOP primary.

Democrats have long pined for winning statewide in Texas yet repeatedly fallen short. The party believes it can ride an anticipated electoral wave fueled by opposition to Trump to finally achieve that goal. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told POLITICO earlier this week that he views Texas as a “very possible” pickup opportunity but didn’t list it among the party’s top four offensive opportunities.

There’s a stark racial split between Talarico's and Crockett's blocs of support. Talarico brings in majority support from Hispanic and white voters, while the large majority of Black voters back Crockett, according to the poll’s findings. Men support Talarico 52 percent to 30 percent, while women are evenly divided between the two, at 44 and 43 percent respectively.

Many Republican voters remain outraged at Cornyn for supporting a bipartisan gun control bill during the Biden administration and have threatened to vote him out of office as punishment. Paxton, Texas’ top attorney for a decade, has strong support from the MAGA base, despite facing multiple state and federal investigations.

Democrats are hoping that Paxton will win the GOP primary, believing his political baggage would turn off voters in the general election. The poll shows both Talarico and Crockett tied with Paxton at 46 percent in a hypothetical matchup. Cornyn would fare better: He would lead Talarico 47 to 44 percent, and Crockett 48 to 43 percent.

The economy stands as the top issue for Texas voters, followed by immigration and threats to democracy.