Trump's historic victory foreshadows the unthinkable in New Jersey — and Democrats are nervous about it

As Democrats make excuses for losing yet another election to Donald Trump, more signs of a historic political realignment are emerging.

Look no farther than New Jersey.

'Democrats need to take this extremely seriously by looking at whether this is an individual one-off or if there is something deeper and more systematic.'

A Republican presidential candidate has not won the Garden State since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Democrats have won the state by double-digit margins since 1996 with one exception: George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign.

By all accounts, New Jersey is a deep-blue state. But that could be changing.

Even though Kamala Harris won the state on Election Day, her margin of victory was only 5.1%. In other words, Harris had the worst showing for a Democrat in New Jersey since Bill Clinton in 1992, who would have defeated George H.W. Bush by a larger margin had third-party candidate Ross Perot not siphoned away a significant number of votes.

Put another way: Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by 14% in 2016 and to Joe Biden by 16% in 2020 — but by only 5% to Harris in 2024.

What should we think about Trump's robust performance in New Jersey? According to Politico, it means New Jersey could be up for grabs as a swing state in future presidential elections.

Not only are Trump's improving margins eye-popping, but Politico noted that Tuesday's result is "more striking" because Democrats hold a significant voter registration advantage over Republicans in the state — about 900,000.

In light of Trump's performance, Democratic strategist Dan Bryan told Politico that his party needs to wake up.

"Democrats need to take this extremely seriously by looking at whether this is an individual one-off or if there is something deeper and more systematic," he said.

In Hudson County — part of the New York City metro — Trump improved by 9% compared to 2020. Other parts of the New York City area saw similar shifts in Trump's favor.

Jose Arango, the Republican Party chairman of Hudson County, believes he knows why urban voters are shifting toward Trump.

"The Democratic Party talks about helping the poor, but if you talk about Hudson County, it's segregated and the working class, and the liberal enclaves are basically the people who are supporting Wall Street in the places they can’t afford the rent. There's no affordable housing," he told Politico.

Chris Russell, a New Jersey Republican strategist, agrees that Trump's agenda has struck a chord with New Jerseyans.

"I think you saw the beginnings of this in '21," Russell told Politico, referring to Republican Jack Ciattarelli nearly winning election to be New Jersey's governor.

"There's a frustration by voters in New Jersey on economic stuff, on crime issues, and I also think there’s an underbelly in the stuff Trump tapped into culturally," Russell explained. "People are tired of being told they’re bad people, racists, bigots, or Nazis — all these crazy aspersions that are cast on people who support Trump or things that he believes."

Even Gov. Phil Murphy (D) this week described his win three years ago as the "canary in the coal mine" foreshadowing a significant electorate realignment in his state.

Whether a Republican wins New Jersey in future election remains to be seen. But it's clear that New Jersey is not an outlier.

In New York, for example, Trump lost by 23% in 2020. This year, he is poised to lose by only 11%. In California, Trump lost by 29% in 2020 but is currently losing by only 17% this year. This phenomenon — a red shift — happened across the nation, most prominently in historically blue states.

If Republicans lean into what made them successful this year, perhaps there is hope yet for California, New York, Illinois, and other longtime Democratic strongholds.

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