What We’ve Learned From Early Voting Numbers Ahead of Tuesday’s Election

With one day to go before the general election, more than 78 million people have voted so far, while data show that Republicans have come within 2 percentage points of Democrats for the early-vote total. The majority, or 42.7 million, have voted early and in person, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. Meanwhile, about 35.8 million have returned mail-in ballots. In states reporting by party affiliation, registered Democrats are ahead of registered Republicans by about 700,000 votes, a much closer gap than in 2020, primarily because Republican voters have shown a higher likelihood of voting early this year. “The unexpected dynamic this election cycle is the high levels of in-person early voting, fueled by [former President] Donald Trump encouraging his supporters to vote in-person early, a departure from 2020 when he called all forms of early voting fraudulent,” wrote Michael McDonald, professor at the University of Florida, on Sunday evening....