Will Mike Johnson Keep the Speaker’s Gavel?

The 118th Congress is all but over. For the House, it ended in much the same way it began: With various factions within the Republican Party jostling for their priorities and for power.

Is the 119th Congress in for a repeat of those dynamics as House Speaker Mike Johnson’s gavel could be in jeopardy and President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to act on his electoral mandate by vigorously pushing a broad agenda?

The 118th Congress’ opening note was a grapple for the speaker’s gavel, which former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., ultimately secured through a number of concessions to hard-line conservatives. It crescendoed with a vote by some of those conservatives to oust McCarthy in October 2023 after McCarthy repeatedly violated the deal.

Johnson was eventually named McCarthy’s successor, but he has not ushered in the change, whether by the speaker’s own doing or by other limitations, that conservatives hoped for. Things were looking up for Johnson when Republicans kept the House in the November elections, but the 118th’s coda, a continuing resolution that kicked appropriations for the current fiscal year to March, could be setting the stage for another speakership fight to start the 119th Congress.

Come January, Republicans will have control of the House, Senate, and White House. Trump’s victory, which led to Republican wins in the House and Senate, likely gives the once and future president 18 months to pass his sweeping agenda before the midterm election campaigns risk stalling the GOP’s forward march.

For Republicans, there is no time to lose. 

As Congress prepared to pass the Dec. 20 continuing resolution, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., announced he would not be backing Johnson’s bid for speaker come January.

“[Johnson] does not have my vote,” Massie told CNN’s Manu Raju. 

This is not the first time Massie has hinted he’d like Johnson out as the House GOP’s frontman. Previously, Massie, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, has prepared to oust Johnson for continuing high government spending. 

Massie told Raju it would take “a Christmas miracle” for him to change his mind. Christmas has come and gone, and Massie has not changed his tune.

With only a two-vote majority for House Republicans, mostly due to resignations from House members tapped to be in the Trump administration, Johnson can’t afford the “never-Johnson” contingent to increase its ranks.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, was another vociferous opponent of Johnson’s negotiating strategy on the December continuing resolution.

“We get this negotiated crap, and we’re forced to eat this crap sandwich,” Roy said upon Johnson unveiling the first version of the continuing resolution. 

An irate Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, is seen here speaking at a news conference with other members of the House Freedom Caucus outside the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 12, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

“Why? Because freaking Christmas is right around the corner,” Roy added. “It’s the same dang thing every year. Legislate by crisis, legislate by calendar. Not legislate because it’s the right thing to do.”

Now, Roy is reportedly working behind closed doors to see whether Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, or other Johnson alternatives are viable candidates for House speaker. Rather than circle the wagons among conservatives, however, Roy is reportedly lobbying the 20 or so Republican lawmakers who held out on Jordan when the Ohio Republican was nominated to replace McCarthy.

If Roy can sense these members would bite on replacing Johnson, it will be quick and easy for Roy to activate conservative opposition to the current speaker.

Roy’s efforts got much harder Monday morning when Trump endorsed Johnson’s bid for another term as speaker.

“We are the Party of COMMON SENSE, a primary reason that we WON, in a landslide, the magnificent and historic Presidential Election of 2024,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “LET’S NOT BLOW THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY WHICH WE HAVE BEEN GIVEN.”

“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration,” Trump added. “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hardworking, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!”

Whether it’s Roy trying to get a read on moderates or rallying his fellow conservatives, few members want to risk being on Trump’s bad side right before the president-elect is sworn in. Roy, however, is an exception to that rule.

For now, it’s a win-win for Roy, who is currently seeking to be chairman of the House Rules Committee. If Roy manages to organize Johnson’s ouster, Roy will have set in motion the ascendancy of the new speaker, whether it’s Jordan or another member. That would put Roy in a good position to be chairman of the Rules Committee under the new speakership. If Roy knows internally that he does not have the support to ultimately deny Johnson the speakership, he can use a prolonged fight over the gavel to gain the chairmanship of the Rules Committee as a concession.

The House Speaker’s gavel (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Whether the House GOP sticks with Johnson or decides to go down a different path, they cannot dawdle. For Republicans to make good on their campaign promises, they’ll need all the time they can get.

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