Democrats’ latest victory in deep-red Mar-a-Lago district offers bleak midterm forecast

Republicans are facing yet another brutal electoral loss after Democrat Emily Gregory sailed through her special election in a deep-red district.

Gregory was elected to represent the 87th district in the Florida House Tuesday night, securing 51.2% of the vote while her Republican opponent, Jon Maples, won just 48.8% of the vote. This district, which includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, was previously held by Republican Mike Caruso.

Republicans have not flipped a single Democrat-held seat since Trump was elected.

Caruso, who vacated his seat in August to become Palm Beach County clerk of the circuit court and comptroller, won the seat by 19 points in 2024. Similarly, Trump won the district by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election.

Gregory's victory is hardly an outlier. Since Trump was elected in November 2024, Democrats have managed to flip dozens of seats in key elections and have come uncomfortably close to defeating other Republicans in deep-red districts.

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In 2025 alone, Democrats flipped 25 state Senate and House seats previously held by Republicans out of the 119 seats that were up for grabs through special or regular elections. Democrats flipped 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates alone and another five seats in the New Jersey General Assembly, even breaking a supermajority in Mississippi.

Democrats flipped another nine seats, including local elections in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Arkansas.

With Gregory's victory Tuesday night, Democrats have successfully flipped 29 seats previously held by Republicans.

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In contrast, Republicans have not flipped a single Democrat-held seat since Trump was elected in November 2024, offering a bleak forecast for the GOP going into the 2026 midterms.

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