Pressure campaign boosting Rick Scott could fall flat with Senate GOP colleagues, strategists say

As Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., enjoys an influx of public support from Trump-allies ahead of the Senate Republican leader race on Wednesday, some strategists are warning that the external pressure might not translate to the secret ballot and could even hurt his effort. 

"They don’t matter one way or another," said Republican strategist Doug Heye, sounding off on the public endorsements Scott has received from figures such as billionaire X owner Elon Musk, former presidential candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Sens. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., Rand Paul, R-Ky., Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., among others.

"The only endorsement that matters, especially in such an inside game, would be Trump’s," he added.

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Trump notably has not made an endorsement, and it is unclear if he will explicitly back a candidate in the leader race, which will be conducted via secret ballot on Nov. 13 at 9:30 a.m. 

Scott is competing against Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. Sens. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., and Mike Rounds, R-S.D., expressed their support for Thune early on. Cornyn received his only public endorsement last week from Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo.

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"Senate Republicans aren’t usually influenced by those outside the Senate when it comes to leadership elections," explained Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, former top spokesman to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference.

"In fact, too much pressure would likely have the opposite effect and cause a candidate to lose votes."

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Since the vote is conducted by secret ballot, there is no way to know how an individual senator voted unless they reveal it. And even then, reporters, colleagues, and the public can only take them at their word. 

Thune had previously described the nature of the secret ballot by referring to an old quote by former Sen. Lamar Alexander after he lost the election for Republican whip by one vote to Lott. In 2006, following the loss, Alexander reportedly said, "I wrote 26 thank you notes for 24 votes."

A former leadership aide previously cast doubt on how much of an impact even an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump would have. 

"I don't think it has anywhere near the impact that it would in a public race," they told Fox News Digital. 

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The aide further described the leader race vote as "a true vote of conscience" for senators. According to the aide, these particular votes "are not super-amenable to endorsement pressure."

Another factor that could play into how senators vote is whether the leader is sustainable after Trump's second term. Depending on whether term limits are instituted for the leader, which some have pushed for and both Scott and Cornyn have gotten behind, the GOP leader could very well outlast Trump, who can only serve his four-year term. Thune has said he is open to the idea of limiting terms for the Republican leader.