Republicans make a last gasp in Virginia as Winsome Earle-Sears looks to shake up her campaign

Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears is set to announce staff changes later this week, according to three people familiar with campaign personnel decisions — an attempt to turn things around as her campaign lags in polling and fundraising.

Earle-Sears, Virginia’s lieutenant governor, is attempting to become the first Black woman ever elected governor in the nation’s history, and the first Virginia Republican in nearly 30 years to succeed a sitting GOP governor. Democrats and Republicans alike see the governor’s race as an important bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms and an appraisal of President Donald Trump’s first few months back in office.

But a recent poll from Virginia Commonwealth University has her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by double digits — 49 percent to 37 percent. The latest campaign finance reports also show Spanberger with a significant fundraising advantage. Between June 6 and June 30, Spanberger raised $4.2 million and had more than $15 million on hand, whereas Earle-Sears raised only $2.3 million in the same period. Her campaign has $4.5 million cash on hand as of July 15.

With little more than 100 days until Election Day, Earle-Sears is banking on a staff shake-up to help steady the campaign.

“At the end of the day, this is just … refocusing for the last push,” said one person close to the campaign who, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about staff reshuffling. The person characterized the move as a positive change that most staff welcomed, arguing the reports of the campaign being in peril are overblown.

“‘Let’s rip off this tabloid Band-Aid and move on’ is kind of the overall vibe,” the person added.

It’s not the first staff change to hit the beleaguered campaign. Following mounting pressure from fellow Republicans — including some within Trump’s orbit who have referred to campaign staff as “amateurs” — the campaign made changes, including the reassignment of her campaign manager, Will Archer, a pastor with no political experience. (People familiar with the campaign say he will continue in a role focused on voter outreach.)

Richard Wagner, Earle-Sears’ political director, has left the campaign, NBC News reported.

On top of the personnel shake-ups, Earle-Sears has run into controversy. Earlier this year the Earle-Sears campaign blasted a fundraising email comparing DEI to American slavery, where she remarked: “Slaves did not die in the fields so that we could call ourselves victims now in 2025.”

Last week, a publication called Dogwood released an audio clip of Earle-Sears in which she appeared to acknowledge the cuts to the federal workforce negatively impacting her standing with voters, telling supporters that she and Spanberger were “neck and neck” before her Democratic opponent brought up DOGE repeatedly and began opening up a lead. Northern Virginia is home to a lot of federal workers who were targeted by DOGE, and in March the progressive Meidas Touch Network released a different recording in which Earle-Sears appeared to be downplaying the severity of the DOGE cuts.

“I’ve always had concerns about this race, but not because of Winsome, just because of the overall environment,” said one Republican strategist. “I expected to be where we are, and when I saw a lot of the DOGE activities and Elon Musk activities having a major impact on Northern Virginia, it gave me even more of a concern.”

Taken together, the campaign is amplifying the monthslong concerns that Earle-Sears does not have enough time or the right personnel in place to get the campaign on track in the final stretch.

“This is not the kind of conversation you want to have as an organization in the middle of July in Virginia politics, because voting starts in 60 days,” said Republican Chris Saxman, a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, referring to the period when early voting begins in Virginia.

Those close to the campaign say they are hoping to secure in the fall “one or two” debates with Spanberger, a format in which they expect Earle-Sears will shine. But others remain skeptical about her prospects.

“Winsome is not going to trust anyone who comes in here in the last 100 days,” said one Republican strategist keeping tabs on the race. “I mean, if she were really serious, she would probably fire the consultants and just get a team to try to have a respectable showing and not lose by 15 points.”