Second choke point crisis looms as Houthis threaten key Red Sea shipping lane

Iran-backed Houthi forces are raising the prospect of a second global shipping choke point in the Red Sea, threatening to deepen pressure on energy markets and global trade as the conflict with Iran intensifies.

The Houthis entered the conflict in early April with missile and drone strikes on Israel and have since warned they could target shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb — a narrow corridor linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — raising concerns the war could expand beyond the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupt global trade.

Analysts warn that if Houthi forces begin targeting vessels again, it could open a second maritime front in a conflict that has already choked off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to global energy markets and supply chains.

The Bab al-Mandeb is one of the world’s most critical shipping choke points, handling roughly 12% of global seaborne oil trade and serving as a key gateway for cargo moving between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.

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The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, are an Iran-backed armed group that controls much of northern Yemen and has been fighting a yearslong civil war against the country’s internationally recognized government.

Houthi leaders, in coordination with Iran, have framed the potential escalation as part of their response to U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran and its allies, warning they could target shipping or restrict access to the Red Sea if the conflict intensifies.

Iranian official Aliakbar Velayati posted on X on Sunday: "Today, the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz. If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move."

The Red Sea has taken on added importance as the conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing more cargo and energy flows toward alternative routes. That shift has increased reliance on the Bab al-Mandeb — a choke point that handles roughly $1 trillion in goods annually — raising the stakes of any renewed disruption.

Traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb is already running well below normal levels after earlier Houthi attacks pushed major shipping lines to reroute vessels around Africa. Ship-tracking data shows daily transits have fallen to roughly half of typical levels, underscoring that the route is already under strain even before any renewed escalation.

"It’s less about what they can actually do and more about the threat," former Fifth Fleet commander Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan told Fox News Digital. "Once that risk is there, shipping companies decide not to take it."

Even limited attacks or threats can drive up insurance costs and push major carriers to reroute vessels around Africa, effectively reducing traffic through the strait without a formal blockade.

The U.S. launched a major air and naval campaign in 2025 — known as Operation Rough Rider — to counter Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, after the group began targeting commercial vessels in opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza.

U.S. and allied forces carried out hundreds of strikes on missile launchers, drones, radar systems and other Houthi infrastructure across Yemen in an effort to restore freedom of navigation through the Red Sea.

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The campaign degraded parts of the group’s capabilities but failed to fully eliminate the threat, as shipping companies continued to avoid the route due to ongoing security risks.

Both U.S. and regional experts say the Houthis lack the capability to fully shut down the Bab al-Mandeb, but retain the ability to harass vessels with missiles, drones and small boats — tactics that have previously disrupted shipping across the Red Sea.

The Houthis field a growing arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-ship weapons and drones, much of it derived from Iranian designs. While Iran has long supplied key components through smuggling networks, the group has also developed the ability to assemble and produce weapons inside Yemen — though analysts say those supply lines may now be constrained by the broader conflict.

"They do have the ability to pester international maritime traffic," Middle East analyst Gregg Roman said, warning that broader attacks could trigger "a severe international response" from the U.S., Israel and Gulf allies.

So far, the Houthis have limited their involvement to strikes on Israel, avoiding the kind of sustained maritime attacks that disrupted global shipping in previous years — a sign analysts say reflects both strategic restraint and pressure from regional actors.

Officials and analysts say Iran could still encourage the group to escalate attacks on Red Sea shipping if the conflict deepens, positioning the Houthis as a secondary pressure point in the broader war.

That dynamic has raised concerns the conflict could evolve into a multi-chokepoint crisis, testing the ability of the U.S. and its allies to keep critical global trade routes open.

Beyond the immediate threat to shipping, Donegan warned that efforts by Iran or its proxies to influence who can safely transit key waterways could challenge long-standing norms of free passage — raising concerns about how similar tactics could play out in other global choke points.