Squad style progressives hit with 'cold shower' as candidates fall to moderates in blue state Civil War

A trio of progressive Democrats backed by members of "The Squad" suffered blistering rebukes on Tuesday as Illinois voters rejected them in favor of more moderate candidates, prompting questions from onlookers about whether the party’s core, and momentum, should be entrusted to the far-left wing of its base.

To James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist, the answer has been "no" for a long time. Talking to Fox News Digital in response to several progressive candidates losing in Tuesday's Democratic primary in deep blue Illinois, he questioned the narrative that Squad-aligned progressives are gaining momentum.

"What momentum? About 15% of the Democratic Party identifies themselves as progressive. And what's unique, they win about 15% in the primaries at most," Carville said. "This was something I've dealt with all my life."

"In New York, [Zohran] Mamdami got 50.5% — which is not overwhelming. That's hardly the basis for some national movement," Carville said, referring to the socialist mayor of New York City.

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The progressive losses all came despite high-profile support from some of the most progressive figures in Congress.

Kat Abughazaleh, the 26-year-old Palestinian American running on an anti-establishment platform and promises to implement a "wealth tax," attracted support from the likes of Rep. Rashida Talib, D-Mich., and Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn, but lost on Tuesday.

Defeated technology entrepreneur Junaid Ahmed told voters he would push for the self-determination of Gaza and implement healthcare for all, earning the support of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

And Robert Peters, a state senator who raised $1.1 million on his track record of helping to end cash bail and raising the minimum wage at the state level, garnered backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vt, and Warren, but lost his bid for Congress to Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller.

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Between them, they raised $5.7 million.

Anthony Driver Jr., widely regarded as a progressive candidate in Illinois' 7th District Democratic primary, lost to the more moderate, establishment-aligned Democrat, La Shawn Ford.

Driver was endorsed by Jayapal and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. 

Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Welcome PAC, a group that supports moderate Democrats, believes their losses should give the party a clear takeaway.

"Illinois is just the latest reminder that the noise machine around far-left candidates rarely translates into actual votes," Kerr said.

"There's a real hunger in this party to win, and the candidates who keep losing are the ones more focused on ideological performance than tried and true economic concerns. The blueprint is simple: ditch the clout-chasing ideologues and invest in hard-working candidates who know their communities."

Kerr’s framing was echoed by Jim Kessler, vice president of policy at Third Way, a Democrat think-tank focused on moderate platforms.

"Illinois delivered a cold shower to the progressive fringe in the Democratic Party. Every winner was a mainstream Democrat. A lesson Democrats always have to relearn is that mainstream beats extreme," Kessler said.

But to other onlookers, the results aren’t so definitive. Even as figures like Carville argue far-left policies aren’t a recipe for national success, others see the Illinois losses as far less decisive for progressives than critics suggest.

Michael Ceraso, a veteran of the 2016 Sanders presidential campaign, pointed out that some of Tuesday’s winners can’t be swept neatly into the "moderate" camp. He doesn’t believe progressives really even lost the night at all.

"Daniel Biss is a progressive. The dude pushed climate and building regulations in Evanston," Ceraso said, referring to the winner for Illinois’ 9th Congressional District — the candidate that beat out Abughazaleh.

Ceraso also noted that several candidates backed by Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker won out.

"The Illinois governor is a progressive. He backed [Juliana] Stratton," Ceraso said, referring to the lieutenant governor-turned Senate candidate who won the Democratic nomination in a high-profile, competitive, contentious, and expensive primary showdown.

"[They] increased the minimum wage, ended the sub-minimum wage for disabled people and protected reproductive care. That’s what progress means: moving toward a goal that lifts others, not protecting the status quo."

Still, other voices, like that of Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, noted that outside groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) had focused their attention on defeating the most progressive voices in the election. Green is the co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

"The real debate inside the Democratic Party is not whether progressive economic policies appeal to voters," Green argued.

"It is whether candidates who genuinely believe in those ideas can compete against industries willing to spend millions to co-opt that message in support of candidates who will never actually challenge power," Green said.

Having now cleared the primaries, Illinois will hold its general elections on Nov. 3.